sunday morning with us. inside politics with john king starts right now. president obama isn't getting many campaign 2014 invites, but insists he still helps democrats more than he hurts. >> we won't just win in november. we'll win for america! hillary clinton is on the road. sounding more and more like a 2016 candidate. >> no one can or should sit on the sidelines. >> but will newly released documents from the bill clinton presidency hurt her chances? and don't forget joe biden. well, how could we? plus, the tea party throws itself a birthday party and sends the republican establishment a message. >> liberty is never safer than when politicians are terrified. >> tensions everywhere.

yet the gop is more upbeat than ever about 2014. "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters -- now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thanks for sharing your sunday morning. with us to share their reporting and insights, melee ka henderson, robert kos of the "washington post." maggie, just as then-first lady hillary clinton getting ready to run for senate, this is back in 1999. her political advisor writes this -- don't be defensive. look like you want the questions. look for opportunities for humor. don't use the administration's record as your own. july, 1999, couldn't we send her the same memo today? >> words to live by really. the same advice that she got

then is the same advice she can and is getting now. essentially the main take-away from that document for me was saying to her, be real. that was really what people want to see from hillary clinton. you've heard this over and over again. she did manage to achieve some of this at state. the question is whether that can translate to another campaign and we're not going to know until she is actually running. she may be acting more like a candidate. it is very different once are you actually on the campaign trail. >> sometimes when they act more like a candidate it tells you they are not going to be a candidate. the thing that's interesting about this is we've never had a candidate like this in the digital age because we've never had a first lady whose husband's records are are becoming more and more public. when governors run, when vice presidents even run, all the records aren't available. they are in a sitting administration. the question is do they tell us anything new? this first wave my answer would be, not really. they fill in some details, but they don't fundamentally tell you anything different about

her. >> they don't. reading these documents it was like going through a time machine. at some point there were i had color in my hair back then. >> whether she should be on "home improvement." they were talking about this new invention called the internet. >> how did that go? >> right. right. so i think it just reminds us how long hillary clinton has been on the public stage and that is her big achilles heel. this idea that presidential elections are about the future, about new, fresh voices and people, that's what obama campaigned on and here she comes with all of her baggage. >> the thing that jumped out at me, the more things change, the more they stay the same. in one of these memos where they're giving her advice about how to deal with the media, they're talking about having staff sit down with reporters, have her meet with reporters, just to sort of curry favor with

them. i'm not ashamed to admit it, reporters do crave access. but that's always been a problem i think for hillary clinton and you covered her 2000 race so you know but in 2008 they kept reporters at arm's length until they started losing, then they started hanging out with the press. then the coverage got better. >> that's true. in 2000 actually referenced it. she's more comfortable doing local interviews instead of the national press. in 2000 that was really true and this memo was written five years before that, 1995, when she was actually enjoying decent press at that point, by the way. but she prefers those smaller groups. that's true in new york, she got used to the local press, not so of much into the national. >> i took a trip to bolivia with her back in the day when she was first lady. i was shopping with her on the side of the road and the motorcade started to leave. somebody -- somebody stopped. she was looking out for me, putting people first. robert, there's some other stuff we mentioned how uncanny it is. you can send a strategy memo from 1999 to her today.

some of the health care stuff is amazing. what about this thing called an individual mandate? they are talking about that's a republican idea in these clinton-era documents. didn't hillary clinton force barack obama to accept the individual mandate in the 2008 primaries? >> i think that's going to be a complicated argument for her to make. i think she'll still be tied to the affordable care act when she runs for president in 2016. i said all these new clinton documents, what does it mean for the gop? they say what they're trying to do is tie her to the past, tie her to bill clinton. that's complicated strategy. right now bill clinton is one of the most popular democrats in the trail. he was just in kentucky. as much as this is about to pass and rethinking about clinton -- hillary clinton's time in the white house in the '90s, the clintons have refashioned themselves since then and they remain a powerful force and i think a force that's been largely rehabilitated. >> and all of that didn't work back then. right? >> if republicans can fix their demographic problems maybe you can make the case she's going

backwards. but they can't hurt her in the democratic primary unless somebody steps forward. right? >> that's exactly right. and i think it would take more than just joe biden. i think it would take an elizabeth warren and not even her necessarily. i think it would take a real threat to make her feel like she's vulnerable the way she was in 2008. barack obama was just a singular candidate. you're not going to see that again, i don't think. we said that in february of '06, march of '06. >> you mentioned joe biden. he was everywhere this past week. he was on late night tv, he's speaking to democrats, he said on "the view" and he said this before that her decision won't affect his decision. let me put it this way -- does his being out there so much affect her decision? >> i really don't think so. any polls will show that, that she is taken much more seriously than he is within the democratic party. but he really wants to be in the conversation and i think he is staying in touch, making phone

calls in to these early states. that's something that flies under the radar when state legislators from iowa and south carolina happen to be in d.c., he's had them over to have a beer and talk to them. he definitely wants to run for president until he is not running. >> until he is not running. i think part of this yrg thouen though is because he thinks it might be his last campaign, 2014. hillary clinton would be welcome on the campaign trail by most democrats if she'd go out there. joe biden will go out and do a lot of base and labor stuff. bill clinton was on the road this week. the one person we don't see on the road yet -- he went to minnesota -- okay, walter mondale won that state -- is the president. we know he's not welcome in kentucky, he's not welcome in arkansas. i could list the other key states. but he is in washington going to a lot of events that he says will help change the agenda. here's my fundamental question. yes, democrats have him to raise money. they have this technology example. but they also have this. mid-term elections are about the president. his approval rating, "the new

york times" poll this week -- 41%. how do you feel about the economy and how the president's handling it? disapprove 57%. is the country on the right track or the wrong track? 63% wrong track. if you're the democrats, i know it is only march, but you have to look at those numbers and think we're about to get thumped. >> the democrats are extremely nervous. it is either this is shall a do about nothing and much of the concern is related to obamacare and how the republicans are trying to frame it, but they are trying to seem positive and conservative in their estimates. there is a lot of concern. those numbers you just cited are terrible. when you look at where bill clinton was at sort of similar points in his presidency, the argument about the economy was do you feel like your life is getting better. he was able to make that case, as you know well, to people. >> the republicans just got a top-tier senate recruit in colorado. you've got these republicans maybe on the sidelines now leaning in a little bit harder because they do see an opening here. the nrc is still actively recruiting candidates.

>> even if obama isn't out on the stump, he's out there in all these commercials. i was down in north carolina and kay hagen is facing an onslaught from these democratic group and all the commercial rdz about her support of obamacare. >> republicans never loved him so much. i will say this about president obama compared to president bush before him. president bush at this point in his presidency had really lost the base. i think the base of the democratic party still generally likes president obama as you saw today. if you go to early states, talk to activists, they still like him but -- >> will they turn out. >> this is a very, very important request. help me with this. ♪ >> that is the vice president and president of these united states running around the white house in their shirts and ties to embrace, i guess in fishl obama says jump, they say how high? is that what thes proving? >> that's right.

that's part of let's move. i guess at some point during that clip joe biden says i can't keep up with you, talking about barack obama. yes, michelle obama has this whole "let's move" campaign. it is four years old now. i think she's going to be in miami this week talking about all of the advances in that movement. fun stuff. >> that didn't happen in the pre-internet presidency, shall we say. everybody, stay put. a tea party birthday and a big conservative gathering put this question front and center. who's winning the struggle to control the republican party? the many pieces of that puzzle are next. as we go to break, well, sometimes politicians say the darnedest things. >> i told somebody once being president is a lot like being superintendent of a big cemetery. there's a lot of people under you and nobody's listening. so i got the new nokia lumia icon. it's got 1080p video, three times zoom, and a twenty-megapixel sensor. it's got the brightest display, so i can see what i'm shooting -- even outdoors,

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welcome back. arizona governor jan brewer once again at center stage in a major republican party divide. remember in 2010 she made the conservative base happy and the establishment furious by signing a tough immigration law. but this past week she sided with the establishment and infuriated social conservatives with a veto of legislation that would have allowed arizona businesses to refuse services to gay people on religious grounds. well, this week's puzzle sorts some of the receskirmishes. one for the establishment there. the establish's also thrilled their candidates beat tea parties both in alabama house election and a florida special election. in florida we are waiting for the final election but the establishment candidate won the primary. score that one there. as peter noted in the last block, a congress joined a very

important senate race in colorado, two tea party candidates dropped out. score that one for the establishment. but, the tea party did block speaker john boehner. he wanted to deal with immigration this year. however, tea party said no. do you that, you get a conservative result. score that this way. and this is unusual -- some of the rising stars in the party are big tea party figures. freshman senators ted cruz, rand paul, mike lee. oversized influence for a first term in the senate because not only do they have affiliation with the tea party, their conservative colleagues know it. here's what i'll call the tbds -- the establishment thinks it won the debt ceiling fight. the base vows revenge against the leadership for doing that. still a number of republican primaries to play out including a tea party challenge to the top senate republican mitch mcconnell and several tea party groups have fired the speaker petitions. more fund-raising tools in my view than anything else. robert costa, here's a question.

no question governor brewer signing the immigration law in 2010 hurt the party on the presidential level with latino voters and the candidates veered to the right in 2012. does her veto of the gay rights measure help the party in 2016, maybe even in 2014 appear more tolerant or have we not heard the last word? >> i think you're seeing the republican party right now trying to avoid distractions and avoid poor candidates. i think with brewer's veto you're seeing the republican party trying slowly to inch forward toward mid-term elections and focus on obamacare, focus on jobs and not take up immigration in the house, not have these kind of skirmishes in arizona become big issues. i think that's what we're going to see for the rest of the year, playing it safe on the gop side. >> i don't think we've heard the last of it at all. if you look at party control in the states, these things are coming out of the state legislatures. in sole many states -- maybe 25 republican governors and republican legislatures. this reminded me of the fight bob mcdonnell had with his own party in 2012 about the

ultrasound bill that was a real issue in the presidential race for mitt romney. as long as you have really conservative state legislatures putting forward bills like this, you're going to have governor having to deal with and the establishment, business community, is going to come down hard and say you can not sign this bill. >> this community issue is very important. the business community, my colleagues had a terrific story last week. the business community really swept in and did a huge push to get brewer to veto this bill and it worked. remember the business community was not feeling like it was able to affect too much during the debt ceiling fight and during a bunch of other crises we've seen. i agree this is an attempt to push back and it is going to be on a case by case basis but the balance sheet is tipping a bit. >> i think it will be interesting to see if it plays out in some of these senate races. in some states it is still an active issue -- georgia, west virginia, mississippi. do these senate candidates at some point have to weigh in on it. >> one of the questions, we know it is not ronald reagan's

republican party. it sure as hell -- i know this is a thusunday morning show -- not the republican party. >> in order for us to be a bigger party, we have to reach out to more people. not just those of us here. it has to be a bigger party. it has to be a bigger movement. >> does he get push-back from that at all? some in the tea party like to stay in their opposition bunker, if you will. we were bored of opposing george w. bush on bailouts, opposed to obama on just about anything. can rand paul convince the tea party they have to have a happy, positive message? >> i think so. i sat down with senator paul this last week. when you speak to his advisors, he feels like he has a strong libertarian base established by his father's campaign. because he has that strong libertarian base he has room to

explore yideologically in the coming year. he'll float different ideas -- talk about things like marijuana, reaching out to young voters and minority voters. we've seen him go to minority communities and minority colleges. paul i think has the political capital with the base, with the tea party as well to do some bold things other candidates just can't do. >> if rand paul grows his father's share of the electorate by a few points, he's won two states. >> he's been consistent on this. he talked to simmons college, at howard. he's talking about drug sentencing and prison reform. can he do that and be taken seriously but also stand next to ken cuccinelli. >> one of the big annual tests in washington is cpac.

here's a little flavor from the last two years. >> i was a severely conservative republican governor. >> oh, bloomberg's not around. our big gulp's safe. >> what do you look for as conservatives gather. we know they're mad at their own establishment. there are sort of tensions about that. what do they want? >> i think they want to be taken seriously and i think they want to remind their party that they remain the base. where we're going to see a couple of tension points -- immigration, gay marriage. i am looking very closely to see what the language is going to be on both of these issues especially, remember, there is another very important headline coming out of this year's cpac, chris christie. he was not invited last year. he was invited this year and for him this is a moment of acclamation potentially when he is having a really hard time. if you're looking for things to

watch for? that's it. >> two other potential president candidates other than christie. one is rand paul. as ukraine flares in the news. his foreign policy vision is somethi something. how can he address these issues? >> in a careful statement he did not say pull back, he said it is important russia learn a lesson. he didn't say united states should threaten. he didn't get muscular, if you will. >> the other is louisiana governor bobby jindal who's been bordering on shameless in his appeals to the republican base. i just envision him rolling up with a cooler of red meat, just throwing it out in the crowd. >> we were talking about marco rubio at some point. he's going to be there. >> on foreign policy especially. he's been quietly cultivating that resume. >> one other name we have to pay attention to -- ted cruz. there's no one right now who's more of a favorite of the conservative base than this

texas freshman. i talk to people organizing cpac, they're just enthralled by cruise. they can't wait for had him to rile up the crowd. >> this could be the informal launching of cruz 2016. our reporters empty their notebooks, including a new twist notebooks, including a new twist on jeb bush and his 2016 plans. of 146 football fields... h they can see the light of a single candle. your eyes are amazing. look after them with centrum silver. multivitamins with lutein and vitamins a, c, and e to support healthy eyes and packed with key nutrients to support your heart and brain, too. centrum silver. for the most amazing parts of you. centrum silver.

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welcome back. each week our reporters share some nuggets from their notebooks to help keep you ahead of the curve offer the big political stories. >> i'm hearing like you did that jeb bush was quietly reaching out to donors. i also had hear people close to him do not believe ultimately that he will run.

they think he'll go through a process of exploration, he'll look at it very close and ultimately decide this was not for him. he was honest in 2012 when he said this is when i should have run and that's not changed. >> a tease from jeb bush maybe. peter? s >> i just came back from a few days in silicon valley. there is an intrigue iing democratic party. he's running against a reliable liberal, mike honda, who's represented that district for a long time. the constellation of interest groups that make up the democratic party are saying why would you run against mike honda, he's a good guy, what are you doing here? this is an intriguing democrat-on-democrat fight right now when we are talking about republican-on-republican fighting. >> paul ryan has been relatively quiet since the budget deal. if you pay attention to capitol

hill, pay attention to paul ryan in the the coming weeks. he's going to unjoveil his gop budget and i think he'll push for poverty to be one of the gop's election year focuses. >> ready for hillary set to launch a big push for women voters. just in time for women's history month that begins today in march. also they have a big event this week on thursday. they're really trying to figure out how to message hillary clinton's story as a feminist message and also how do they broaden sort of the idea of feminism beyond essentially privileged white women and include african-americans, as well as latinas and really expand that idea what it means to have a movement based on girl power. >> girl power. i'll close with this -- watch the special election in florida. we're into the final ten days now and republicans are nervous. this is a republican held seat. the chamber of xhors has thrown in a ton of money. polls show a dead heat. early voting started yesterday.

the republicans are worried the libertarian might get a little too much. keep an eye on it. more money will flood in in the final two weeks. it is a true test of whether obamacare can be the new republican message and drive turnout. thanks for sharing your sunday morning with us. see you soon. "state of the union" with candy crowley starts right now. \s this is the red alert. this is not the threat. this is actually the declaration of war to my country. >> that is ukraine's new prime minister responding to increased russian military forces in crimea. i'm candy crowley and this is a special edition of "state of the union." good morning from washington. th p